Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.64 price level occurred as the MACD indicator began trending upward from the zero line. This confirmed a valid entry point for buying the dollar, continuing the uptrend that began during today's Asian session. The pair gained 25 points before demand subsided.

In the second half of the day, the economic calendar is empty. On the one hand, this benefits dollar buyers who have maintained control over the market. On the other hand, there may be limited incentives to add to long dollar positions. As a result, I expect range-bound trading for the pair and prefer to look for buying opportunities at lower levels. For today's intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenario 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1:I plan to buy USD/JPY at 153.90 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.33 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.33, I will exit the market and initiate short positions, aiming for a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further appreciation in the pair today is possible if the current trend continues.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning its upward trend.

Scenario 2:Alternatively, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price undergoes two consecutive tests of 153.57, with the MACD indicator reaching oversold levels. This will likely limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the resistance levels of 153.90 and 154.33 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1:I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below 153.57 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.15, where I will exit the market and potentially initiate long positions, aiming for a movement of 20–25 points from the entry point. Bearish pressure may return if the pair fails to surpass the daily high.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning its downward trend.

Scenario 2:Alternatively, I plan to sell USD/JPY if the price undergoes two consecutive tests of 153.90, with the MACD indicator reaching overbought levels. This will likely limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the support levels of 153.57 and 153.15 can be expected.

Chart Key

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for initiating long positions.
• Thick Green Line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for initiating short positions.
• Thick Red Line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is essential to consider overbought and oversold levels when making trading decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

• Be cautious when deciding to enter the market.
• Avoid trading during the release of major economic announcements to prevent exposure to sudden price swings.
• Always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire deposit, particularly when trading large volumes without proper money management.
• Successful trading requires a clear and structured plan, such as the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions often leads to losses, especially for intraday traders.