empty
12.06.2023 12:09 PM
GBP/USD turns bullish on positive UK economy, repo rate outlook

The British pound is effectively leveraging its advantages. The UK economy is likely to avoid a recession, which distinguishes the sterling from the euro. Looking at a strong labor market and rapid wage growth, the Bank of England will continue to raise the repo rate above 5%. The divergence in monetary policy with the Federal Reserve (Fed) contributes to a rally in GBP/USD. The pair has reached monthly highs, which, amid the calmness of the Forex market before the storm, indicates serious bullish intentions.

The Confederation of British Industry has raised its UK GDP forecast from -0.4% to +0.4% in 2023 and from +1.6% to +1.8% in 2024. The main reasons cited are the recovery of the Chinese economy after COVID-19-related restrictions and the easing of disruptions in global supply chains. According to Bloomberg experts, the British economy is expected to expand by 0.3% in April after contracting by 0.3% in March, essentially signaling stagnation. However, the fact that a recession will be avoided provides support for GBP/USD.

Expectations of an acceleration in average wages from 5.8% to 6.1% over three months through April are driving the pound upward. These expectations are related to a 9.7% increase in the minimum wage in mid-spring, which has benefited around 1.6 million people in the UK. The strength of the labor market is a strong argument for raising the repo rate above 5%, contributing to a rally in UK bond yields and GBP/USD quotes.

Dynamics of British bond yields

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the sterling is playing its own cards, taking advantage of the consolidation of the U.S. dollar ahead of important releases of U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed's meetings. Bloomberg experts predict a slowdown in consumer prices from 4.9% to 4.1%. However, this should not be misleading. Core inflation will decrease from 5.5% to 5.2% but will remain elevated. Monthly CPI will accelerate to 0.4%.

As for the Federal Reserve's meeting, the futures market expects the rate to be maintained at 5.25% in June, with a subsequent increase to 5.5% in July. It is likely that Jerome Powell will adopt a hawkish rhetoric during his press conference, and the FOMC's rate forecasts will be raised. In theory, this should lead to an increase in Treasury bond yields and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, any surprises are possible.

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, the persistence of high U.S. inflation combined with signals from the Fed about further rate hikes will limit the potential for a GBP/USD rally.

Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls intend to restore the upward trend. The presence of quotes above dynamic support in the form of moving averages indicates that buyers are in control of the market. However, the inability of GBP/USD to break above the 1.2645 pivot level or a drop below the support at 1.2565 will indicate weakness in the bulls and provide a basis for forming short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O mercado não tem mais para onde fugir

Enquanto Donald Trump e Pequim ainda tentam definir se as negociações comerciais entre os EUA e a China realmente estão em curso, o S&P 500 segue em alta pelo terceiro

Marek Petkovich 17:53 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Visão Geral do GBP/USD - 25 de abril: O Fed está começando a se preocupar de verdade

O par GBP/USD foi negociado em alta na quinta-feira, permanecendo próximo às máximas de três anos. Apesar do forte rali da libra esterlina nos últimos meses, correções ainda são raras

Paolo Greco 16:58 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Visão Geral do EUR/USD - 25 de abril: América entra com uma ação contra o tarifaço de Trump

O par EUR/USD continuou a ser negociado de forma calma na quinta-feira, embora a volatilidade tenha permanecido relativamente alta. Nesta semana, o dólar americano apresentou alguns sinais de recuperação

Paolo Greco 16:43 2025-04-25 UTC+2

O iene está ficando cada vez mais forte

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor nacional publicado na semana passada mostrou uma aceleração do núcleo da inflação em março, de 2,6% para 2,9%. A pressão inflacionária está aumentando

Kuvat Raharjo 16:20 2025-04-25 UTC+2

O dólar australiano pode ser afetado se a guerra comercial entre os EUA e a China se intensificar

O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, comentou mais uma vez sobre o presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressando abertamente sua insatisfação com o ritmo dos cortes nas taxas

Kuvat Raharjo 16:03 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Por que os preços do ouro podem cair significativamente? (Há uma chance de o ouro continuar a cair, enquanto o CFD sobre o contrato futuro do NASDAQ 100 pode subir)

O início de negociações efetivas pode levar a uma queda significativa nos preços do ouro em um futuro próximo. Em artigos anteriores, sugeri que o preço do ouro — anteriormente

Pati Gani 15:33 2025-04-25 UTC+2

O Canadá aguarda os resultados das eleições. Perspectiva do USD/CAD

Na semana passada, o Banco do Canadá manteve sua taxa básica de juros em 2,75%, conforme amplamente esperado pelo mercado. O comunicado que acompanhou a decisão teve um tom neutro

Kuvat Raharjo 15:09 2025-04-25 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.