Analisis Forex & Kajian: 20.02.2025 - X-Day: Walmart, Alibaba, and...

20.02.2025 01:49 PM

X-Day: Walmart, Alibaba, and Booking to report today. Markets to face turmoil?

US stock futures opened lower as investors analyzed the Federal Reserve meeting outcomes and Donald Trump's new tariff threats. The meeting minutes confirmed the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts.

Officials signaled they would wait for more progress in controlling inflation before adjusting monetary policy. They also voiced concerns about potential trade barriers.

Trump's proposal for a 25% tariff on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals is adding to global trade tensions. If these tariffs take effect on April 2, they could increase corporate costs and weaken profit forecasts in affected industries.

Today, investors are closely watching jobless claims data, which could offer insights into the labor market. They are also anticipating quarterly reports from major companies like Walmart, Alibaba, and Booking, which may set the market tone.

Despite external risks, US stock markets ended Wednesday in positive territory, driven by gains in healthcare, telecommunications, and consumer goods sectors. At the close, the Dow Jones rose 0.16%, the S&P 500 gained 0.24%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.07%.

Investors focused on standout stocks that showed strong growth. Among the S&P 500 leaders were Garmin Ltd, which surged 12.64% to 241.93, Microchip Technology Inc, up 9.90% to 63.59, and Analog Devices Inc, rising 9.74% to 241.66.

In the tech sector, JetAI Inc soared 150% to 10.15, Editas Medicine Inc jumped 83.91% to 3.20, and SINTX Technologies Inc climbed 70.92% to 4.82.

According to LSEG, S&P 500 companies' fourth-quarter earnings are expected to rise by 15.3% year-over-year, far exceeding the 9.6% forecast at the start of the year.

This underscores corporate financial resilience but does not eliminate growing uncertainty about factors that could impact markets in the coming months.

S&P 500: growth momentum slows

The S&P 500 is trading at 6,134, staying near record highs. The key resistance level is at 6,150, and so far, the index has struggled to break above it. A clear breakout could accelerate growth toward 6,180–6,200, where profit-taking may intensify.

Support is at 6,120, and a break below this level could increase downward pressure, leading to a correction toward 6,100–6,080. Deeper support is at 6,050 and 6,000, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is located.

Indicators:

RSI (14) = 60. The market remains neutral, but it is nearing overbought conditions, which could limit further gains.

MACD is still positive but losing momentum, thus suggesting possible consolidation.

The 50-day SMA is at 6,000, a key support level in case of a correction.

Nasdaq 100: correction gains strength

The Nasdaq 100 is trading around 22,125, remaining under pressure after recent gains. The key resistance area is at 22,200–22,250. It has not been breached, increasing the risk of profit-taking and a deeper correction. If the index breaks above 22,200, further growth to 22,500 is possible, but technical signals indicate weakening momentum.

Support is at 22,100, and a break below this level could push the index down to 21,900–21,800, where the 50-day SMA is positioned. If selling pressure increases, a deeper pullback to 21,600 could become a crucial level for buyers.

Indicators:

RSI (14) = 57. The decline from overbought territory suggests growing selling pressure.

MACD is showing signs of reversal, signaling a potential weakening of the bullish trend.

The 50-day SMA is at 21,800, a critical support level that could trigger a rebound.

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