empty
30.10.2024 07:16 PM
Analysis of GBP/USD pair on October 30, 2024

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD wave structure remains complex and continues to develop. At one point, the wave pattern appeared convincing, suggesting the formation of a downward wave sequence with targets below the 1.2300 level. However, demand for the pound has risen so sharply that it disrupts any clear wave structure. Currently, there is a possibility of forming a new downward trend segment, but certain factors cast doubt on this, such as the ambiguous attempt to break the low of wave b within wave c.

Since April 22, a series of a-b-c waves have emerged, each containing its own a-b-c formation. Considering the wave structure of EUR/USD, which indicates a downward wave sequence, now seems like a favorable time to initiate a new trend segment. However, the pound remains influenced by the Bank of England, which is in no rush to lower rates. Recently, demand for the pound has decreased, which indicates a potential for a sustained downward wave sequence.

No signs of a corrective wave have appeared yet. Despite a 15 basis point drop in GBP/USD on Wednesday, demand for the British currency grew steadily during the U.S. session. In my view, this is a false rally for both the euro and the pound, as the market reacted to the "weak" U.S. GDP report while disregarding the strong ADP report. It's also too early to draw conclusions ahead of Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow, the Eurozone's inflation data for October will be released, which may support the euro and, in turn, the pound. Meanwhile, U.S. labor market and unemployment reports on Friday could strengthen the dollar, potentially driving both pairs down again.

Considering recent developments, I wouldn't make any final conclusions on the current wave structure until the end of the week. The overall market sentiment remains "bearish," with a downward wave sequence taking shape. News could potentially support both the pound and the dollar. In my view, a substantial decline in the pound may not start until later. The first wave appears convincing on the 4-hour chart but looks weak on the daily. Other waves are notably stronger and more prolonged, suggesting that the recent decline in the pound over the past month may not yet reflect the full extent of its decline.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

The GBP/USD wave structure remains quite complex. The current pattern suggests that the trend segment from April 22 may have taken the form of an a-b-c wave sequence, which could now be complete. From the 1.3440 mark, aligning with the 127.2% Fibonacci level, one could cautiously open short positions. Currently, traders may wait for a corrective upward wave and then look to sell again, though the decline may continue within the first wave. The impulsive nature of this wave, indicating a rapid directional change, is becoming increasingly certain, and the pair may reach the 1.2800–1.2900 levels in the near term.

On a higher time frame, the wave structure has evolved. We might now anticipate a complex and prolonged upward corrective structure. Currently, it is forming a three-wave sequence, but it could expand into a five-wave structure, which could take several months or even longer to complete.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often undergo changes.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market's direction, it's better to avoid entering positions.
  3. One can never be 100% confident in the market's direction. Always remember to set protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Analysis for GBP/USD on March 21, 2025

The wave structure for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous, but overall manageable. At present, there's still a high probability of a long-term downward trend developing. Wave 5 has taken

Chin Zhao 18:42 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on March 21, 2025

The EUR/USD pair saw no change on Friday. There was no news background in the direct sense of the word today, so the market had nothing to respond

Chin Zhao 18:39 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on March 20, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is at risk of transforming into a more complex formation. A new downtrend structure started forming on September 25, which took

Chin Zhao 18:37 2025-03-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis – March 18th

The wave structure for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous yet generally clear. At present, there is a high probability that a long-term downward trend is forming. Wave 5 has taken

Chin Zhao 18:45 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis – March 18th

The wave structure on the four-hour chart is at risk of transforming into a more complex formation. A new downward wave structure began forming on September 25, taking the shape

Chin Zhao 18:43 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis – March 17th

The 4-hour wave analysis for EUR/USD is at risk of transforming into a more complex structure. A new downward trend began on September 25, taking the form of a five-wave

Chin Zhao 17:34 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, #Ethereum, and #Litecoin – March 17th

GBP/USD Since January, an upward wave has been forming on the GBP/USD chart. The wave structure analysis shows that this wave remains incomplete. After breaking through another resistance level

Isabel Clark 09:34 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, #Bitcoin, and #Ripple – March 17th

Since February 3 of this year, the chart of the euro has been forming an upward wave zigzag. The wave structure analysis indicates that a correction is forming

Isabel Clark 09:23 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast BasSimplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, Ethereum, and Litecoin on March 10th

Analysis:The upward wave that started on January 13th remains incomplete, forming a new segment of the dominant global uptrend. The pair is currently trading within a narrow range between opposing

Isabel Clark 09:26 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, GOLD, and Bitcoin on March 10th

Analysis:Since early February, the euro has been forming an upward zigzag wave, marking the beginning of a new bullish trend. The pair has reached a significant potential reversal zone

Isabel Clark 09:20 2025-03-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.