empty
05.06.2024 12:28 AM
The pound has updated a 2-month high and is not going to stop. Overview of GBP/USD

The pound is gaining momentum, and there are at least two reasons for this. The first reason is that after shrinking for two quarters in a row, economic growth has resumed, PMI indices are in expansion territory, and there are good chances that it will continue to rise. This reduces the burden on the Bank of England and could potentially adjust rate cuts plans for in favor of a more gradual trajectory.

This image is no longer relevant

The pace of the UK economic recovery is high, with production levels growing at the fastest rate since early 2022. There is simultaneous growth in production and new orders. Business optimism is rising, but costs are also increasing – inflation in the manufacturing sector has been rising for the fifth consecutive month and has reached its highest level in a year. If costs continue to rise, the BoE will face the threat of another round of inflation growth, making any rate cuts unlikely.

The net volume of consumer lending in April was significantly higher than forecasted, further indicating a shift in consumer sentiment. Consumers are ready to spend more as they feel more confident about their incomes, which is a sign of a pickup in GDP growth in Q2.

The second reason is the accelerated slowdown of the US economy, which might force the Federal Reserve to start lowering rates earlier. The dollar sharply declined across the board on Monday following the release of the ISM manufacturing index. Instead of the expected recovery from 49.2 to 49.6, it fell to 48.7 in May, which the markets interpreted as another sign of an emerging recession. Now, the market is focused on the ISM services index on Wednesday. The forecasts are positive (from 49.4 to 50.5), but if this gauge also falls short of expectations, the dollar could lose even more than it did on Monday, as forecasts for the first Fed rate cut might shift from September to July.

The net long EUR position increased by 1.94 billion, (the second weekly result after the euro) to 2 billion, with growth observed for the fifth consecutive week. Positioning has shifted from neutral to bullish. The price is above the long-term average and is firmly rising.

This image is no longer relevant

The pound reached the target set the previous week. It has not yet managed to consolidate above this level, but everything suggests that the next attempt will be successful. A deep correction is unlikely; we expect growth to resume after a brief consolidation, with the target being the local high of 1.2892, followed by 1.2980/3000. Increasing signs of overbought conditions could hinder growth, but these signs are not yet too evident.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Likelihood of a Euro Reversal to the South Is Increasing

As expected, the ECB cut all key interest rates by a quarter-point, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. At this meeting, no new staff projections were released, and given

Kuvat Raharjo 12:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Markets Await a Massive Rally if the U.S. Starts Real Negotiations with China (There is a likelihood of continued growth in #NDX and Ethereum)

A new wave of euphoria has swept through the markets. Many believe it's not a coincidence: take everything away from a person and then provide them with even the smallest

Pati Gani 09:03 2025-04-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. All of them are Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for April in the services and manufacturing sectors. The indices will

Paolo Greco 07:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 23: The British Pound Can't Stop Smiling

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded much more calmly, yet again showed signs of a "maxed-out flat" pattern. As previously noted, the US dollar has only had two behaviors

Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 23: Another Calm Before Another Collapse?

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Tuesday than on Monday. The US dollar managed to avoid another fall, but it's too early to celebrate. The greenback can collapse

Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY. On the Threshold of the 139th Figure

The USD/JPY pair has been in a consistent downtrend for the fourth consecutive week. On Tuesday, sellers pushed the pair to the edge of the 139.00 area, hitting the lowest

Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-23 UTC+2

The Dollar Has Been Replaced. Nature Abhors a Vacuum

Fear paralyzes, but action persists. Investors are slowly overcoming their concerns over Donald Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and are starting to lock in profits

Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Bitcoin Took Its Chance

Slow and steady wins the race! Bitcoin quietly broke through to its highest levels since early March amid Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell. When the independence of the Federal

Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

After setting a new all-time high at $3500 under overbought conditions, gold prices are pulling back. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment remains strong due to persistent concerns over the potential economic fallout

Irina Yanina 19:02 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/GBP pair is losing ground today after two consecutive days of gains, trading near the psychological level of 0.8600. The pound is receiving support from optimism surrounding ongoing trade

Irina Yanina 11:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.