empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
12.06.2023 12:09 PM
GBP/USD turns bullish on positive UK economy, repo rate outlook
Open trading account Open demo account

The British pound is effectively leveraging its advantages. The UK economy is likely to avoid a recession, which distinguishes the sterling from the euro. Looking at a strong labor market and rapid wage growth, the Bank of England will continue to raise the repo rate above 5%. The divergence in monetary policy with the Federal Reserve (Fed) contributes to a rally in GBP/USD. The pair has reached monthly highs, which, amid the calmness of the Forex market before the storm, indicates serious bullish intentions.

The Confederation of British Industry has raised its UK GDP forecast from -0.4% to +0.4% in 2023 and from +1.6% to +1.8% in 2024. The main reasons cited are the recovery of the Chinese economy after COVID-19-related restrictions and the easing of disruptions in global supply chains. According to Bloomberg experts, the British economy is expected to expand by 0.3% in April after contracting by 0.3% in March, essentially signaling stagnation. However, the fact that a recession will be avoided provides support for GBP/USD.

Expectations of an acceleration in average wages from 5.8% to 6.1% over three months through April are driving the pound upward. These expectations are related to a 9.7% increase in the minimum wage in mid-spring, which has benefited around 1.6 million people in the UK. The strength of the labor market is a strong argument for raising the repo rate above 5%, contributing to a rally in UK bond yields and GBP/USD quotes.

Dynamics of British bond yields

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the sterling is playing its own cards, taking advantage of the consolidation of the U.S. dollar ahead of important releases of U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed's meetings. Bloomberg experts predict a slowdown in consumer prices from 4.9% to 4.1%. However, this should not be misleading. Core inflation will decrease from 5.5% to 5.2% but will remain elevated. Monthly CPI will accelerate to 0.4%.

As for the Federal Reserve's meeting, the futures market expects the rate to be maintained at 5.25% in June, with a subsequent increase to 5.5% in July. It is likely that Jerome Powell will adopt a hawkish rhetoric during his press conference, and the FOMC's rate forecasts will be raised. In theory, this should lead to an increase in Treasury bond yields and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, any surprises are possible.

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, the persistence of high U.S. inflation combined with signals from the Fed about further rate hikes will limit the potential for a GBP/USD rally.

Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls intend to restore the upward trend. The presence of quotes above dynamic support in the form of moving averages indicates that buyers are in control of the market. However, the inability of GBP/USD to break above the 1.2645 pivot level or a drop below the support at 1.2565 will indicate weakness in the bulls and provide a basis for forming short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on April 25, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted into a bullish formation. It's safe to say that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy
Chin Zhao
20:26 2025-04-25 +02:00
1300
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on April 25, 2025 The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture closely resembles that of the EUR/USD pair. Until February
Chin Zhao
20:21 2025-04-25 +02:00
1300
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level. Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation
Irina Yanina 12:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Market Has Nowhere Left to Run

While Donald Trump and Beijing are still trying to figure out whether trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are happening at all, the S&P 500 continues to climb
Marek Petkovich 11:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The U.S. Dollar Rises — Here's Why

The U.S. dollar strengthened against a number of global currencies, as did the U.S. stock market, following reports that the Chinese government is considering suspending its 125% tariffs on certain
Jakub Novak 11:31 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Why Could Gold Prices Drop Significantly? (There's a chance gold will continue to decline while the CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures contract may rise)

The beginning of actual negotiations could lead to a significant drop in gold prices in the near future. In previous articles, I suggested that the previously surging price of gold
Pati Gani 10:14 2025-04-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 25: The Fed Is Starting to Worry for Real

The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Thursday, remaining near its 3-year highs. Despite the British pound's strong rally in recent months, corrections are still rare in the forex market
Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 25: America Files a Lawsuit Against Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly on Thursday, although volatility remained relatively high. This week, the US dollar showed some signs of recovery—something that could already be considered
Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but this doesn't matter, as the market continues to ignore 90% of all publications. Among the more or less significant reports today
Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Yen Is Looking Stronger and Stronger

The nationwide Consumer Price Index published last week showed accelerated core inflation in March—from 2.6% to 2.9%. Inflationary pressure is increasing, supporting the case for further interest rate hikes
Kuvat Raharjo 01:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Canada Awaits Election Results. USD/CAD Outlook

Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected. The accompanying statement was neutral in tone, emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Confidence is hard to maintain
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Australian Dollar Could Suffer If the U.S.-China Trade War Escalates

U.S. President Donald Trump once again commented on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, openly expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts. Another public expression of disapproval of the Fed's
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD Analysis on April 25, 2025
20:26 2025-04-25
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 25th (U.S. Session)
19:17 2025-04-25
Forecast
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 25th (U.S. Session)
19:22 2025-04-25
Forecast
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD Analysis on April 25, 2025
20:21 2025-04-25
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 25th (U.S. Session)
20:09 2025-04-25
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.