Forex Analysis & Reviews: 06.05.2022 - Can USD/CHF reach parity?

06.05.2022 08:44 AM

Can USD/CHF reach parity?

The US dollar quickly recovered from its slump after the meeting of the Federal Reserve. Yesterday, USD surged upwards against all major currencies, including CHF.

USD/CHF gained 1.32% on Thursday, recouping losses sustained on Wednesday after the Fed meeting.

Earlier, the US central bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000 to quell record-high inflation.

However, the US dollar failed to take advantage of the regulator's increasingly hawkish course, as Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that a 75 basis point hike was off the table at the following Fed meetings.

Powell's statements sent the US dollar downwards from its earlier peaks. USD/CHF fell below 0.9730.

On Thursday, USD rallied strongly and reached a 19-year high, with the US dollar index jumping to 103.94.

US stock indexes slid down yesterday in response to aggressive Fed monetary tightening, giving support to the US dollar.

Investors are anxious that if the Fed raises interest rates too quickly, it could weigh down on US economic growth.

Furthermore, the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in China could lead to a global economic slowdown. Beijing's "zero-COVID" policy threatens to jeopardize global economic recovery.

As a result, demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset increases amid risk aversion in the market. The Swiss frank, another currency considered to be a save haven asset, lost ground to the US dollar as well.

Over the past several trading sessions, USD/CHF has hit new yearly highs, indicating that the pair could reach parity amid the steady uptrend.

The pair continues to surge upwards, despite the Relative Strength Index being at 79.01, signaling that USD/CHF is overbought and is about to peak.

Yesterday, the quote traded near 0.9890, trying to regain weekly highs. The Swiss currency reversed downwards after the release of Swiss CPI data for April.

Year-over-year, inflation in Switzerland rose to 2.5%, up from 2.4% in March and largely matching expectations.

Lower inflation does not make the hawkish tone of the Swiss National Bank's chairman, Tomas Jordan, look convincing in the future.

The US dollar could also find support in the divergence between US and Swiss monetary policies.

The nearest serious resistance for USD/CHF on the way to the parity level of 1.000 is located at 0.9901, analysts say. The pair last tested 0.9901 on March 23.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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